Worldcoin & WLD Analysis

A little rebrief of my thougth process doing my Worldcoin & WLD Dune dashboard and conclusions

This article is about this dashboard:
https://dune.com/Velorum/worldcoin-and-wld

The inspiration for making this dashboard were 2 things, I was excited to participate in the cryptodatabytes project of ilemi and also a lot of not crypto-related people were asking me a lot of questions regarding Worldcoin since they added a orb location in a mall nearby, so I merged both together and made this dashboard!

As a little warning, this is one of my first times doing more than simple SQL queries so please let me know if you see something wrong or any piece of advice that I can use to improve them. :)

Humans

My first queries are in the “Humans” section, here, I just track the amount of humans that have gone through this verification process, also, since is a project that aims to create a hard sybil resistance method, I thought it would be interesting to compare this number to the total amount of humans, I don’t know any real-time tracker of the amount of humans in the world in Dune, so I decided to make it 8 billions and compare it to that, and while 3 million looks like a big number, seeing it as a percentage looks like almost nothing!.

Also, I added a tracker for the new wallets created each day (which represents each one as a different verified human), so we can identify the times when there were more verifications, we can see that there was a lot in Jun 2023 that we’ll see the reason later on, a long winter from August to November, and an increase reaching 2024.

In this section I got kinda frustrated, how Worldcoin works, there is no smart contract to look for and see all the gnosis-safe wallets created by worldcoin, so I didn’t know how to gather the data and looked how they did it in their dashboard, seems like they just “knew” from which addresses they were created and tracked the ones that were created by those addresses, I just ended up using that query (query_3229067) to create those visualizations.

Also, their site says there are +4 million verified users, while I’m just tracking +3m but I have no idea how to get that, maybe I’m missing other addresses to look for that worldcoin didn’t add to that query or maybe they are in other L2 like polygon since they had migrations from there.

Grants

Grant queries are related to the WLD that verified wallets receive, there are 3 types.

1. Welcome grant -> Grant received at the start for becoming a verified user
2. Recurring grant -> Grant received byweekly to verified users
3. Migration grant -> Grant received with the WLD that you had in the network that you migrated from

To identify which one I used another query from Worldcoin dashboard (query_3166907) that knew which type it was by from where the transaction was sent.

Here I just did 2 visualizations, one with the amount of grants sent daily and divided by type and another with the WLD sent daily in grants and again divided by type.

We can see a similar behavior as the new wallets chart, high activity around 2023 Summer, low activity during autumn, and back to high in Winter, but here we can see the reason of why the high amount of new wallets was in 2023 Summer, seems like Worldcoin received a lot of migrations to optimism, so probably a lot of those new wallets were from wallets that were created in other networks that got migrated to optimism at that moment, but that doesn’t mean that the users verified that exact day.

WLD

In the WLD section I create a new term called “Secondary address”, since verified wallets can only transfer funds from wallet to wallet most users transferred those funds to a secondary address, to sell them, buy more or interact with other dapps in the ecosystem, my idea was to track those wallets to know what they do with the WLD.

Probably my logic of “if you receved WLD from a verified wallet you’re a secondary address” is not exactly what I wanted to represent since later I see some CEX addresses being labeled as secondary addresses and I didn’t want that, but I’m working in improving my heuristics to get a better representation for it in the future.

The first chart is a visualization of the WLD sold by those secondary addresses, I wanted to see how much WLD has been sold from those people that just do the verification for the money, and also, I added which DEX they used so we could see which one they preferred, seems like Uniswap dominated almost all of the sales.

The second and the third chart are visualizations of the WLD sold divided by the destination of the WLD, if the buyer and the seller were both part of the group of “verified wallets & secondary wallets” it would be “Sold to each other”, if it was just the seller it would be “Sold to outsider”, if it was just the buyer it would be “Bought to outsider” and if it both were not part of the group it would be “Outsiders trading”.

Here we can see something interesting, when the amount of verified wallets increased in Feb 2024 also the selling pressure increased from those wallets (verified and secondary addresses), the same happened un Summer 2023, so in the future, if we see an increase in the amount of new wallets, this could be an indicator that there will increase the amount of WLD being sold.

The last charts are just a Holders overview where we can see how many WLD is being hold by each type of holder (secondary address, verified wallet or Other) and a Top 100 Holders, where i got surprised to find some verified wallets in there.

In the pie charts we can see that while most holders are verified wallets, most WLD is more concentrated in Other addresses or secondary addresses.

Conclusions

• Seems like Worldcoin is gaining a lot of traction again in 2024 having a lot of new wallets being created daily compared to previous months
• Uniswap is the dominant DEX platform used by the worldcoin users.
• New wallets as a possible good indicator of sell pressure
• Most of WLD being hold by outsiders or second addresses and not in verified wallets.

Hope you enjoyed this article about the worldcoin dashboard that I made and if you have any tips or want to point out any mistakes that I made pls let me know via twitter, telegram or any other way, thank you!